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Because of the relatively mild symptoms and the fact that it can spread before the onset of symptoms, COVID-19 evolved into one of the worst global pandemics. Therefore, in spite of initial widespread skepticism, lockdowns are likely to be added to the response toolkit used for any future pandemic outbreak.ĬOVID-19 emerged in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China in December of 2019 and spread rapidly. Further, the city lockdown strategy can buy time during which countries can mobilize an effective response in order to better prepare. Our study provided urgently needed and reliable causal evidence that city lockdown can be an effective short-term tool in containing and delaying the spread of a viral epidemic. The increase in new cases declined by around 50% during this period. However, the suppression effect became less discernible after this initial period of time. A 2.25-fold surge was found for the increase in new cases on the fifth day following the lockdown, after which it died down rapidly. A significant reduction of new cases was observed within four days of the lockdown. In our example, the lockdown of Wuhan reduced mobility inflow by approximately 60 % and outflow by about 50 %.

By using a weighted average of available control cities to reproduce the counterfactual outcome trajectory that the treated city would have experienced in the absence of the lockdown, the synthetic control approach overcomes the sample selection bias and policy endogeneity problems that can arise from previous empirical methods in selecting control units. Methodsīased on the daily panel data from 279 Chinese cities, our research is the first to apply the synthetic control approach to empirically analyze the causal relationship between the Wuhan lockdown of its population mobility and the progression of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. This lockdown represented the largest quarantine in the history of public health and provides us with an opportunity to critically examine the relationship between a city lockdown on human mobility and controlling the spread of a viral epidemic, in this case COVID-19. This study aims to assess the causal impact of the Wuhan lockdown on population movement and the increase of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases.

on JanuWuhan, China imposed a 76-day travel lockdown on its 11 million residents in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. “I will not have us look back after we are through the immediate challenges and say that we didn’t take action soon enough,” Pritzker said.At 10 a.m. “And I really came to the conclusion that we’re telling adults essentially, don’t gather in large groups, but we’re telling kids that you can bump up against each other in a hallway even if you might not have an assembly. “I started to think about the kids who will go to school and who may, in fact, end up going home and bringing it home to their parents or grandparents,” Pritzker said.

By Friday afternoon, the decision to close them was made after talks with school superintendents and Lightfoot. On Thursday, Pritzker and Lightfoot said schools would stay open, with the governor also warning the decision would be evaluated on a day-by-day basis. The decision showed just how quickly the response to the virus is evolving in the state.